How to Build Anticipatory Action Systems: A Field Guide for Developing Countries

Every $1 invested in anticipatory action gives families $7 worth of benefits. This approach doesn't just save money - it changes lives. The International Federation of Red Cross projects a dramatic increase in people needing humanitarian help. Weather-related disasters could push these numbers from 108 million to over 200 million each year.

We shouldn't wait for disasters to hit before we act. Smart decisions made before a humanitarian crisis help prevent displacement, disease, and lost livelihoods. People's dignity stays intact. The World Bank's research highlights a crucial point: better early warning systems in developing countries could save 23,000 lives yearly. These systems could also prevent losses ranging from $300 million to $2 billion.

Let's explore how to build an anticipatory action system that works for developing countries. This piece covers everything from risk assessment to implementation. You'll find practical tools and frameworks to protect your communities before disaster strikes.

Understanding Anticipatory Action Frameworks

Anticipatory action marks a radical alteration in disaster management. This approach lets us act on forecasts and predictions before hazards strike or show their acute effects. My experience implementing these systems in vulnerable communities shows how this method transforms humanitarian aid delivery.

Definition and core components

Anticipatory action protects lives and livelihoods through predictive analysis. The idea is simple: take specific steps when forecasts show an incoming hazard instead of waiting for disaster to strike. Teams must act in a specific time window between early warning signals and actual impact.

A working anticipatory action framework needs three basic elements:

• Pre-agreed trigger system: Thresholds and decision rules based on reliable forecasts that signal response activation. These triggers combine forecast data with vulnerability details and past impact patterns.

• Pre-agreed action plans: Clear, doable, and effective steps that teams take before disaster hits. The actions change based on location and hazard type - from evacuations to cash handouts and protecting livestock.

• Pre-arranged financing: Money ready to go as soon as triggers activate. This gives teams instant access to resources without red tape.

Teams activate anticipatory actions based on forecasts that predict when and where hazards will hit. The system works best when everyone agrees on these elements beforehand, which allows quick, coordinated response to threats.

Benefits for developing countries

Countries that face natural hazards repeatedly can gain significant advantages from anticipatory action. This approach builds both immediate protection and long-term strength.

Recent data proves this method makes economic sense. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that every dollar invested in anticipatory action brings families up to seven dollars in benefits and saved losses. Research from Mongolia and Ethiopia backs this up - $1 invested saved more than $7 in losses.

Early warning systems tied to anticipatory action give back more than ten times the investment - the best return among climate change adaptation measures. A 24-hour warning before storms or heat waves can cut damage by 30 percent.

The benefits go beyond money. This approach strengthens food security and protects how people make their living. Madagascar's data shows only 16% of people who received anticipatory help reported poor food intake compared to 40% in other groups. Afghan families with good food consumption jumped from 6% to more than 50% after help arrived.

How it differs from traditional disaster response

Anticipatory action is different from old methods in key ways. The biggest change is moving from reaction to prevention. Teams position resources and plans before disasters hit, using scientific forecasts.

Timing makes another big difference. Traditional help starts after disaster strikes and people suffer. Anticipatory action jumps in between forecast and impact, stopping suffering before it starts rather than just easing it.

Traditional humanitarian funding mostly reacts - for every $10 spent on relief, only $1 goes to managing risks. Anticipatory action flips this by investing in prevention.

The approach's biggest strength lies in preserving dignity. Communities get resources to protect themselves instead of waiting for devastation to receive help. This creates a faster, more efficient way to deliver aid with more dignity.

Teams can coordinate and plan better with community input since they set up activities well ahead. This improves immediate results and helps communities handle future hazards better, whatever triggers might activate.

Anticipatory action systems have grown from small test projects to cover 40 countries in the last decade. Notwithstanding that, coverage remains small and must expand to protect more hazards, countries, and at-risk communities.

Assessing Risk Landscapes in Developing Countries

Risk assessment is the foundation of any successful anticipatory action system. My work with vulnerable communities across Asia has taught me that we need to understand local risk landscapes before developing triggers or action plans.

Conducting complete hazard mapping

Hazard mapping shows where potential threats exist across an area. This vital first step in risk management answers a basic question: what risks could stop a community from reaching its development goals?

When developing countries face multiple hazards, comprehensive mapping helps identify connections between geologic materials and processes that regular analysis might miss. The process includes:

1. Finding specific hazards in the region (floods, landslides, volcanic activity, etc.)

2. Collecting historical hazard data to find patterns

3. Making visual maps that show how often hazards occur, their strength, and where they happen

Flood hazard maps are vital for coastal and riverine communities. They should show the area covered, water depth, and how often floods happen. These maps help emergency responders and design engineers limit damage by knowing flood characteristics beforehand.

Vulnerability assessment techniques

A community's vulnerability comes from characteristics that make it more likely to suffer from hazards. Several factors create this vulnerability:

• Population demographics: Age, gender, chronic conditions, immunity status

• Social factors: Literacy, unemployment, poverty levels, social networks

• Environmental conditions: Water access, sanitation, food security, climate threats

• Political context: Lack of disaster risk management policies

Different frameworks help measure vulnerability systematically. The Household Economy Approach (HEA) looks at how people get food and cash. It sets baseline measures for normal living conditions to predict how shocks might affect people. The Household Vulnerability Index (HVI) finds the most vulnerable populations and tracks impacts over time, especially for food security.

Developing countries with limited resources often get the best applicable information from community-based approaches like Participatory Vulnerability Analysis. These methods use local knowledge and help communities plan together.

Using geospatial data for risk identification

Innovative technology has changed how we assess risks through geospatial information systems (GIS). These tools give us precise threat identification by creating a complete view across geographic, political, economic, and security dimensions.

Modern GIS lets risk professionals:

• Look at security risks in areas as small as 500m x 500m

• Create custom boundaries to generate risk scores for specific areas

• Map routes and calculate changing risk levels along supply chains

• Track intelligence events in specific zones and get alerts about changes

This technology helps analysts find high-risk areas and create better underwriting practices through hazard mapping. Geospatial property intelligence also helps calculate and show hazard probability, exposure, and community vulnerability through spatial analysis.

Integrating climate projections

Climate change alters risk landscapes in developing countries by a lot. Research shows that we might reach points of no return for planetary systems at or before 1.5°C of global warming—predicted by the early 2030s.

Climate projections need to be part of risk assessment through:

1. Getting local climate model data

2. Using multiple climate models instead of just one to account for uncertainty

3. Using probability models that combine climate predictions with their uncertainties

Modern global climate modeling makes predictions at scales that work for anticipatory action, though we must recognize each model's limits. Bayesian networks work well to add local climate projections to environmental risk assessments and help integrate climate-dependent variables.

Small island states and vulnerable developing nations use climate projections to spot future flooding risks, remoteness issues, urban growth pressures, and natural disaster vulnerability. This information shapes anticipatory action frameworks that address both current threats and long-term climate changes.

Risk assessment systems might become outdated if they don't include climate projections as climate patterns move beyond what we've seen before.

Designing Effective Trigger Systems

Triggers are vital decision-making tools in anticipatory action systems. They tell us exactly when to launch pre-planned interventions. My field work implementing early warning systems across South Asia has taught me that well-laid-out triggers can make all the difference between acting on time and missing our window of opportunity.

Selecting appropriate hazard indicators

The right indicators form the foundations of trigger systems that work. These indicators measure or track events that help predict changes in service demands or resource availability. Good indicators should signal an upcoming threat early enough to take action.

Here's what you need to think about when developing indicators for anticipatory action:

1. Hazard-specific relevance: Each hazard needs its own tailored indicators. River water levels or upstream rainfall measurements work well for floods. Drought indicators might track rainfall deficits or check vegetation health indices.

2. Data quality and availability: Your indicators will only be as good as your data. Before picking an indicator, make sure you can get practical information from available sources. Many developing countries still face big data gaps.

3. Impact-based focus: The best indicators link directly to predicted impacts rather than just tracking when hazards happen. This helps pinpoint where extreme weather will hit hardest and helps define priority areas.

My work in Pakistan's flood-prone regions showed that mixing weather indicators with social and economic factors gave us much better trigger accuracy. We looked at housing types, education levels, population exposure risks, and potential damage to household assets.

Setting threshold values

After picking the right indicators, we need to set threshold values carefully. These are the points that kick off our response. Each risk factor has an acceptable range, and crossing these boundaries should start pre-agreed actions.

Here's how to build a reliable threshold system:

• Base decisions on historical data: Look at past disasters to see how indicator values matched real impacts.

• Think about return periods: This tells us how likely a hazard will hit at a specific strength within a timeframe. Countries with limited resources often set triggers for events that happen every 10-20 years.

• Tap into local knowledge: Threshold values should reflect actual climate-related changes, not other extreme events. Working with stakeholders helps capture local wisdom and builds acceptance.

• Plan enough response time: Your thresholds should give teams adequate time to plan, talk to stakeholders, and secure funding before impacts hit.

Bangladesh's early action protocols for floods show how we matched forecast thresholds with impact levels. We set triggers at 25% or more for household asset damage and 40% or more for affected population.

Addressing forecast uncertainty

Every forecast has uncertainty, but decisions can't wait. Here's how we deal with this challenge:

First, we need clear probability definitions that everyone understands. In Mozambique, we created a trigger system using 7-month rainfall forecasts. This gave us a 74% Hit Rate and 59% False Alarm Ratio.

Second, we developed two decision paths: one for immediate action based on clear indicators, and another for predictions that need more assessment before non-scripted responses.

Last, we document everything openly - unknowns, risks, and what we assume. This helps everyone understand the trade-offs between unnecessary action (false alarms) and missed responses.

Finding the sweet spot between forecast accuracy and lead time lets us design trigger systems that work. Technical experts play a key role by turning complex climate data into practical decision-making tools.

Creating Your Anticipatory Action Plan

A reliable trigger system needs a well-laid-out action plan to work. My work with flood-prone communities in Pakistan showed that even the best early warning systems fail without clear, applicable plans that spell out what happens when alerts go off.

Defining pre-agreed actions

Pre-agreed actions are the life-blood of anticipatory frameworks. They outline specific steps taken between a forecast and when a hazard hits. These actions must be accountable, doable, and quick to help vulnerable communities.

My field experience shows several anticipatory actions that work in different settings:

• Asset protection: Distributing cash before floods so families can strengthen homes or move livestock

• Food security measures: Providing drought-resistant seeds before poor rainfall ruins harvests

• Supply positioning: Setting up hygiene kits before cyclones hit

• Technical preparations: Fixing water points before drought gets worse

These actions work best when they fit local needs. They should be created together with communities and organizations to address real problems. The IFRC emphasizes that meaningful involvement with at-risk communities makes early action work better.

Assigning roles and responsibilities

Clear tasks prevent confusion and close response gaps during a crisis. Early Action Protocols (EAPs) spell out these duties and detail which stakeholders handle specific actions when forecasts trigger alerts.

This means:

1. Finding all key stakeholders, including government agencies, humanitarian organizations, and community representatives

2. Writing down each person's specific duties

3. Making sure stakeholders know and accept their roles

4. Creating ways for different groups to work together

Local actors know best about who should do what when risks appear or triggers activate. Zimbabwe taught me that community involvement leads to better results – locals created their own vulnerability criteria and picked out food-insecure households through community ranking.

Establishing activation protocols

Activation protocols map out how anticipatory actions move from plans to reality once triggers hit. These protocols guide decisions that link forecasts to funding and action.

My experience developing forecast-based financing systems shows that good activation protocols need:

1. Simple decision trees that show who approves activation

2. Pre-arranged financing mechanisms that make funds available right away

3. Ways to tell all stakeholders what's happening

4. Schedules showing when each action should start after the forecast

The IFRC's Anticipatory Pillar offers pre-approved funding for up to five years through Early Action Protocols. This covers key items like stock pre-positioning, yearly readiness activities, and pre-agreed early actions.

Developing standard operating procedures

Standard operating procedures (SOPs) give step-by-step guides to implement anticipatory actions. They turn your broad plan into detailed steps. SOPs need structure but must stay flexible since disasters are unpredictable.

Good SOPs for anticipatory action should:

1. Detail exact steps to implement each pre-agreed action

2. Explain how organizations share information

3. Include ways to adapt to specific situations

4. Set up ways to check if actions work

My career implementing early warning systems shows that organizations like their own SOPs better than standard ones. Creating cross-organizational SOPs focused on information sharing helps solve this issue. Regular practice runs let teams test SOPs before real emergencies and clarify roles while checking preparedness.

Building Financial Mechanisms

My experience in raising over $15 million in donor funding across Pakistan and the Maldives has taught me something crucial. The backbone of any successful anticipatory action system lies in its financial mechanisms. The best action plans will fail without dedicated financial resources before disasters strike.

Forecast-based financing options

Forecast-based financing (FbF) releases pre-arranged funds based on scientific forecasts of extreme weather events. This groundbreaking financing model helps humanitarian organizations act before disasters strike and reduces suffering in vulnerable communities.

Several financing instruments support anticipatory action:

• Risk pools: Countries can collectively manage disaster risks through these mechanisms. The Global Risk Financing Facility (GRiF) helps establish risk pools by covering start-up costs and providing capital contributions.

• Contingent credit: Quick access to funds becomes available when specific conditions are met. Countries don't need to wait for humanitarian appeals to tap into these resources.

• Risk transfer schemes: These insurance-based solutions transfer financial risk to third parties. GRiF reduces costs by co-paying insurance premia or buying down interest rates.

• Contingency budgets: These dedicated funds support anticipatory action when triggers activate.

Major humanitarian networks have set up dedicated funding mechanisms at the international level. These include the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), the Red Cross Movement's Forecast-based Action by the DREF, and the Start Network's Start Fund.

Securing pre-positioned funds

Pre-positioned funding plays a vital role in anticipatory action. Right now, anticipatory humanitarian action receives less than one percent of humanitarian funding. This creates a huge gap between planning and implementation.

Here's how to secure these funds:

The core financial stakeholders should get involved early in system design. Finance ministries have better connections to financial actors and broader financing processes, which makes their involvement essential.

Organizations should think over multiple sourcing strategies. CERF has allocated up to $140 million for anticipatory action pilots in multiple countries. The Start Fund runs an Anticipation Window that gives NGOs access to resources for anticipatory interventions.

The IFRC's Forecast-based Action by the DREF makes fund allocation automatic for National Societies with Early Action Protocols. This eliminates delays when disasters loom.

My work in Bangladesh shows that dedicated pre-arranged funding builds confidence among implementing partners. They can act decisively instead of hesitating due to financial uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis for anticipatory investments

Anticipatory action investments consistently show impressive returns. A study of ten interventions revealed benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) up to 7.1. This means every dollar invested generated over seven dollars in benefits and avoided losses for beneficiaries in Ethiopia and Mongolia.

These financial benefits show up in several ways:

Anticipatory action protects productive assets effectively. Recipients in Bangladesh took preparatory measures before severe riverine flooding and lost fewer assets.

These actions help households avoid debt cycles too. The Philippines saw great results when drought-tolerant seeds were distributed. Beneficiaries didn't need to buy seeds on credit with 15 percent interest rates.

Early interventions keep animals alive and productive. Families were 12 percent less likely to reduce their meal size or frequency. This improved both nutrition and dignity.

The benefits extend beyond households. Studies by DFID and USAID have looked at anticipatory actions' effects across several African and Asian countries. Kenya alone could save $20 billion over 20 years by acting when drought first appears.

Research addresses "false alarm" concerns and shows that anticipatory action remains cost-effective overall, even when forecasted disasters don't materialize.

Strengthening Technical Capacity

Technical infrastructure forms the foundation of every successful anticipatory action framework I've set up in vulnerable communities. My thirteen years in disaster risk reduction taught me that even the best-designed plans need reliable technical systems to work.

Data management systems

Developing countries don't deal very well with data management. Two-thirds of their management information systems are only partly digitalized. This limitation affects their analytical capabilities and decision-making by a lot. Setting up complete data systems needs to address several gaps:

• Quality assurance mechanisms - all but one of these countries in Latin America and the Caribbean lack data quality frameworks

• Data interoperability standards that let agencies share information

• Centralized data repositories to eliminate isolated information

Governments often have important data but lack the resources to analyze it properly. Complete systems help overcome this significant limitation.

Early warning technology requirements

Early warning systems deliver great value. They reduce disaster-related damage by 30% when warnings go out within 24 hours. Still, about 30% of people worldwide have no coverage from these systems. My field experience shows these essential tech components:

Cloud-based platforms merge data from different sources, interactive dashboards show decision-relevant information, and pre-arranged alert systems spread warnings. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) standard works particularly well. It lets single alerts trigger multiple warning systems at once.

Training needs assessment

My work implementing anticipatory action systems in Pakistan showed that technical infrastructure isn't enough. Developing countries often rely on international experts for short-term contracts because they lack local expertise. Original training assessments should find:

Gaps in data interpretation, forecast understanding, and technical operations at both institutional and individual levels. The institutional gap shows clearly - all but one of these public administrations in Latin America and the Caribbean lack dedicated career paths for data professionals.

Building analytical capabilities

Long-term investment in people and systems builds analytical capacity. Success stories include "stat labs" at academic institutions where students learn to help local businesses and policymakers with statistics.

Analytical capacity scores vary by a lot among developing countries - sub-Saharan Africa (57.1), South Asia (69.8), and Latin America (70.1). My focus has been creating lasting analytical ecosystems that combine regular training with hands-on practice. This ensures systems keep working after outside support ends.

Implementing Anticipatory Action Tools

The right tools can turn anticipatory action from an idea into reality. My field deployments in South Asia showed that practical tools often determine if vulnerable communities get help in time or face avoidable hardship.

Decision support systems

Decision support systems act as the command center of anticipatory action. Nepal's BIPAD portal shows this approach well. It combines hydrological forecast data from the Global Flood Awareness System with flood inundation maps to show potential effects. The system measures three key elements: exposed buildings and infrastructure, at-risk households, and how severe the impact might be. This helps disaster management agencies spot severely affected households early and direct resources where they matter most.

Mobile data collection platforms

Mobile technology has changed how we gather and spread critical information. Mobile phones, owned by three-quarters of people worldwide, offer a powerful way to alert populations about coming hazards. Several mobile-based options work well in different situations:

• Cell broadcast sends messages quickly to millions without network overload

• Location-based SMS reaches all devices in specific risk areas and works in multiple languages

• Interactive Voice Response (IVR) systems excel in areas where literacy is low

These platforms cut paper-based collection costs, boost accuracy, and allow better oversight. Solutions like Magpi, REDCap, and CommCare let teams gather data offline in remote areas that lack good connectivity.

Impact-based forecasting tools

Traditional forecasts only describe weather conditions, but impact-based forecasting explains how weather will affect communities. These tools combine hazard forecasts with vulnerability assessments to predict specific effects on lives, livelihoods, and property. This approach works well - Mongolia's impact-based Dzud forecasting system cut livestock deaths by up to 50% and helped more offspring survive.

Information management solutions

Good information management needs systems that can predict what users need. Modern systems now use machine learning to grasp context and suggest next steps automatically. These tools review user risk, endpoint risk, and asset risk to set proper approval thresholds. They also make use of peer analytics to give decision-makers contextual information quickly, which makes identity security help business growth.

Monitoring and Evaluation

Measuring the effects of anticipatory action frameworks should be central to our approach. My experience implementing early warning systems in Pakistan has shown how strong monitoring creates the foundation for growth and improvement.

Measuring effectiveness

Strong empirical data and MEL (monitoring, evaluation and learning) agendas help scale up anticipatory action systems. My evaluation frameworks focus on three key questions: "What specifically are we trying to accomplish?", "What change might we introduce and why?", and "How will we know that a change is actually an improvement?".

Assessment of effects must go beyond simple beneficiary satisfaction surveys. We need more rigorous methods. Quasi-experimental designs that compare program participant's experiences with non-participants work well. These designs need substantial technical expertise.

Learning from activations

Results from anticipatory action activations show clear benefits. One initiative revealed that anticipatory cash recipients could evacuate vulnerable household members better (27% versus 11% of non-beneficiaries). The FbF program's beneficiaries reported agricultural losses of 52 decimals compared to 109 decimals in control groups.

Numbers tell only part of the story. Process learning matters just as much. We need qualitative data about setup benefits and implementation challenges. This combined approach helps us understand both effects and operational effectiveness.

Continuous improvement processes

The best anticipatory action systems work through continuous improvement. Teams can review community needs data systematically through Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycles. This helps them plan interventions, ensure implementation, study effectiveness, and refine approaches.

Practitioner networks speed up improvement by sharing metrics and intervention strategies. The World Food Program has created detailed guidance on anticipatory action M&E. Their guidance offers practical ways to create strong evaluation plans while recognizing these programs' context-specific nature.

My repeated field experience confirms one basic question: Does anticipatory action make a real difference in reducing disaster effects on affected populations?

Final Words

Anticipatory action systems help us move away from responding to disasters after they happen to managing risks before they occur. My work in Pakistan and the Maldives shows that every dollar we put into these systems saves seven dollars and protects millions of families at risk.

These systems work best when key pieces come together - smart trigger points, agreed-upon plans, ready funding, and resilient infrastructure. We must keep local communities at the heart of everything. They should help design and run these systems rather than just receive aid.

The numbers tell a clear story. Communities using these systems lose fewer assets, have more food security, and know how to protect their vulnerable members during disasters. Yet these approaches receive nowhere near enough funding - less than 1% of humanitarian aid goes to prevention.

We need to expand current systems and create new ones. Governments and aid organizations should focus on setting aside funds, building technical skills, and growing local knowledge. My experience with over 3 million households shows that taking action early provides both immediate safety and lasting strength.

Want to create an anticipatory action system for your area? I'd love to share what I've learned from 13 years of reducing disaster risks. Let's talk - you can reach me at contact@imranahmed.tech. We can work together to protect vulnerable communities before disaster strikes.

FAQs

Q1. What are the key components of an anticipatory action system? An effective anticipatory action system consists of pre-agreed triggers based on reliable forecasts, pre-planned activities to support vulnerable communities, pre-arranged financing mechanisms, robust forecasting capabilities, and clearly defined roles and responsibilities for all stakeholders involved.

Q2. How does anticipatory action differ from traditional disaster response? Anticipatory action focuses on proactive measures taken before a disaster strikes, based on forecasts and early warning systems. This approach allows for faster, more dignified, and cost-effective interventions compared to traditional reactive disaster response methods.

Q3. What are some examples of anticipatory actions? Examples include distributing cash before floods to help families reinforce homes or evacuate livestock, providing drought-resistant seeds before rainfall deficits impact harvests, pre-positioning hygiene kits ahead of cyclones, and rehabilitating water points before drought intensifies.

Q4. How is the effectiveness of anticipatory action measured? Effectiveness is measured through rigorous monitoring and evaluation processes, including quasi-experimental designs comparing program participants with non-participants. Key metrics include reductions in asset losses, improvements in food security, and enhanced ability to protect vulnerable community members during disasters.

Q5. What are the financial benefits of implementing anticipatory action systems? Studies have shown that for every dollar invested in anticipatory action, up to seven dollars in benefits and avoided losses can be generated for beneficiaries. This includes protecting productive assets, preventing debt cycles, reducing animal mortality, and maintaining overall household resilience in the face of disasters.

References

[1] - https://www.unocha.org/anticipatory-action
[2] - https://saviynt.com/blog/embracing-anticipatory-identity-product-design-and-experiences
[3] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000055
[4] - https://wmo.int/media/magazine-article/communicating-forecast-uncertainty-service-providers
[5] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/about/what-is-anticipatory-action
[6] - https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/digest/
[7] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Reports/WFP-The_evidence_base_on_Anticipatory_Action.pdf
[8] - https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/lac/publication/data-for-better-governance-building-government-analytics-ecosystems-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean
[9] - https://wkc.who.int/our-work/health-emergencies/knowledge-hub/community-disaster-risk-management/vulnerability-assessment-tools
[10] - https://reliefweb.int/report/world/mobile-based-early-warning-systems-effective-and-inclusive-alerting
[11] - https://www.climatecentre.org/downloads/files/Standalone_Impact%20based%20forecasting%20guide%202020.pdf
[12] - https://www.air.org/resource/assess-and-improve-early-warning-systems-education
[13] - https://www.preventionweb.net/news/new-comprehensive-guidance-monitoring-and-evaluating-anticipatory-action
[14] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK202381/
[15] - https://www.preventionweb.net/drr-community-voices/well-designed-triggers-support-decision-making-anticipatory-action
[16] - https://www.preventionweb.net/news/considering-socioeconomic-parameters-triggers-anticipatory-action
[17] - https://safetyculture.com/topics/risk-management/key-risk-indicators/
[18] - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.932336/full
[19] - https://coastadapt.com.au/how-to-pages/identifying-indicators-monitoring-and-evaluation
[20] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/news/considering-socioeconomic-parameters-in-triggers-for-anticipatory-action
[21] - https://510.global/service/early-action-protocol-development/
[22] - https://www.ifrc.org/our-work/disasters-climate-and-crises/climate-smart-disaster-risk-reduction/early-warning-early
[23] - https://www.ifrc.org/happening-now/emergencies/anticipatory-pillar-dref
[24] - https://www.gndr.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Anticipatory-Action-Guide_EN_Published.pdf
[25] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Briefing_Sheets_and_Fact_Sheets/Locally_led_anticipatory_action_Briefing.pdf
[26] - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-024-00583-5
[27] - https://redcross.eu/projects/forecast-based-financing
[28] - https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/GRiF%20Information%20Sheet.pdf
[29] - https://devinit.org/resources/falling-short-humanitarian-funding-reform/pre-arranged-finance-anticipatory-action/
[30] - https://www.preventionweb.net/understanding-disaster-risk/key-concepts/anticipatory-action
[31] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Policy_Papers/AATF_Policy_Brief_for_Donor_Governments_May_2021.pdf
[32] - https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/financing-strategies-adaptation
[33] - https://cerf.un.org/sites/default/files/resources/211117%20CERF%20Anticipatory%20Action.pdf
[34] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Policy_Papers/Anticipatory_crisis_financing_and_action_concepts__initiatives_and_evidence.pdf
[35] - https://www.fao.org/3/cc7900en/online/impact-of-disasters-on-agriculture-and-food-2023/anticipatory-action-interventions.html
[36] - https://wmo.int/topics/early-warning-system
[37] - https://preparecenter.org/topic/early-warning-systems/
[38] - https://www.preventionweb.net/news/roadmap-managing-disasters-3-how-climate-vulnerable-countries-can-access-tech
[39] - https://theconversation.com/low-and-middle-income-countries-lack-access-to-big-data-analysis-heres-how-to-fill-the-gap-159412
[40] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/news/developing-an-impact-based-forecasting-model-within-nepals-national-disaster-information-management-system-the-bipad-portal
[41] - https://www.gsma.com/solutions-and-impact/connectivity-for-good/mobile-for-development/blog/saving-lives-through-mobile-based-early-warning-systems/
[42] - https://www.magpi.com/what-is-mobile-data-collection
[43] - https://www.teamscopeapp.com/mobile-data-collection-guide/7-mobile-data-collection-apps-for-field-research
[44] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/learn/emerging-topics/impact-based-forecasting
[45] - https://reliefweb.int/report/world/evidence-base-anticipatory-action
[46] - https://pathwaystoadultsuccess.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/20210424_EGC_EWOTSystemsFINAL.pdf
[47] - https://www.preventionweb.net/news/impact-assessment-shoestring-exploring-alternative-methodologies-anticipatory-action-evidence
[48] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/experience/evidence-database/evidence-list
[49] - https://www.wfp.org/publications/monitoring-and-evaluation-anticipatory-actions-fast-and-slow-onset-hazards-guidance
[50] - https://voiceeu.org/publications/voice-out-loud-37-anticipatory-action-shaping-the-future-of-humanitarian-response.pdf
[51] - https://www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/220921_EWEA%20brief_Global%20Climate%20Resilience%20Platform_IFRC.pdf
[52] - https://www.anticipation-hub.org/Documents/Briefing/short-overview-of-anticipatory-action.pdf
[53] - https://www.adpc.net/V2007/IKM/ONLINE%20DOCUMENTS/downloads/ADUMP/hazardmapping.pdf
[54] - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022169421008969
[55] - https://www.fhi360.org/wp-content/uploads/drupal/documents/Vulnerability%20Assessment%20Methods.pdf
[56] - https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/solutions/products/geospatial-mapping-visual-risk-assessment-and-geospatial-analysis
[57] - https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2021/08/19/using-geospatial-property-intelligence-gis-for-risk-assessment/
[58] - https://www.esri.com/en-us/industries/humanitarian/solutions/risk-reduction-prevention
[59] - https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=362267&Lab=CESER&advsear=
[60] - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38084033/
[61] - https://academic.oup.com/ieam/pages/climate-change-risk-assessment
[62] - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/4989291_Vulnerability_Assessment_of_Developing_Countries_The_Case_of_Small-Island_Developing_States

To dive deeper into building effective climate resilience strategies, explore our step-by-step guide on implementing anticipatory response and learn how anticipatory action systems can be developed in fragile contexts. Discover how local leaders can foster climate-resilient communities and understand the financial impact through our real-world case study where anticipatory action saved $2 million. To address the systemic funding challenges, read about innovative climate resilience fund models for fragile states, and see how these approaches are being localized in Pakistan’s integrated anticipatory action and social protection systems. For a broader overview of disaster preparedness, our Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) program highlights the critical role of timely interventions in reducing risk and protecting livelihoods.